India’s economic and social development encounter certain peculiar challenges, and hence I have argued that the country’s progress could be rather slow. We may not see solutions to these problems emerging quickly or easily. There could be a sharpening of social conflicts due to these issues.

Since India is a democracy, it may not face regime-changing revolutions. This is so since democracy provides opportunities to vent out people’s frustrations and anger. However there can be severe turbulences ahead for the country.  Though there is some awareness, politicians, academics, the middle-class, media and others who are active in policy discussions have not comprehended the severity of these issues. Let me highlight a few of these problems.

The crisis faced by India’s agriculture is known. In my view, this is going to worsen in near future. The average size of land-holing is small and it continues to shrink for a number of reasons. Though a small set of people get out of agriculture, those who continue in farming cannot expand their operational holding. This reduces the ability of many farmers to generate an income that is required to meet their basic requirements. The fertility rate among small and marginal farmers has not come down to the replacement rate in different parts of the country. This may lead to a further decline in the per-capita land-holding size in future. The consumption demands of farming families are rising. However, the price of farm products (especially food crops) may not increase in tune with that of industrial products and services, since society’s demand for these farm products may not increase that rapidly as part of income growth.

Under these conditions, and in the peculiar situation of India where nearly half of the working population depends on agriculture despite witnessing an above 5 percent economic growth during the last 3 decades, the crisis in agriculture is likely to worsen. It would be difficult for any government to neglect this crisis, and hence there could be a temptation to take short-term strategies like the waiver of farm loans (which may be useless or harmful in the long run). The farmers’ suicides reported from different parts of the country and the agitations of the kind that we have seen in Maharashtra recently, are less likely to decline and instead, there could be many more.

One reason for the continued dependence of nearly half of the population in agriculture (which is unviable and unsustainable considering the welfare of these people) is due to India’s failure in providing school education to the majority. Only the half of boys and girls who are 17 years old have completed schooling and that share was significantly lower a decade ago. Those who do not finish school education get trapped in less productive agriculture or unskilled work.

As more and more sections continue to complete schooling (with whatever quality that is available), India is going to face another major challenge. Those who have analyzed the regime-changing revolutions in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and so on have found that educated unemployment is a major reason behind their drastic political transition. India as a whole has not faced severe unemployment of educated people so far, primarily due to the under-achievements in education. Given the gradual increase in the completion of schooling (and the poorer quality of schooling), stagnation in manufacturing sector, and competitive disadvantages that the country has in comparison with countries like China or those in south-east Asia, non-agricultural sectors in India may not absorb many people who complete school education. The issue of educated unemployment is likely to worsen in near future and it can be a major source of political turbulence in the country.

The nature of under-achievements in India’s education may create an additional problem. Even when the enrollment is increasing, quality continues to be an issue. It is obvious that those who do not complete school education comes from historically under-privileged social groups in the country. Better off sections are in a position to buy the `quality’ that they want (even if that `quality’ may not be desirable from the perspective of educationists). Or these sections are able to take those steps which are necessary to compensate for the poorer quality of education that they get from schools. On both these counts, the under-privileged groups fall behind.

The economic development would create a situation wherein a major share of jobs would be in private sector and not in public sector and government. Though the reservation may enable a small section of underprivileged groups to get jobs in governments that may not help in the case of employment in private sector. Given the nature of under-achievements in education that we have discussed in the previous paragraph, these underprivileged groups may encounter severe challenges in getting jobs in private sector (especially when the demand exceed the supply of such jobs). This can lead to major agitations by the educated unemployed among the under-class and lower-caste. There could be a strengthening of social demand for job reservation in private sector, which may be resisted by economic elites. If such a demand is accepted by the government and is enforced, it may be perceived as a curtailment of the freedom of private investors, and hence it may have implications for economic growth. The mobilizations of the Dalit that we see in parts of the country could be a major churning factor in country’s future. Social fragmentations along caste lines may widen and that may have implications for the functioning of democracy.

There is yet another social tension which may become intense in coming years and that is due to the persistence of gender discrimination. This is manifesting in different ways, starting from sex ratio unfavorable to girls, rapes and sexual harassments, and to the lower participation of females in paid-employment. Though this issue captures the attention of society when there is one or other heinous crime, we are, by and large, insensitive to the pervasive forms of gender discrimination which have negative impacts for the life of women and also the human development of the country. Though the division of women along caste and class axes, and the persistence of male control in households may prevent the social mobilization of women, the repercussions of severe gender discrimination cannot be contained easily. It may show up in many instances that put Indians (including its prime minister) in a shameful situation.

Social turbulences which are created through these issues – continued dependence of half of the population in agriculture, likely increase in educated unemployment especially that to be encountered by under-privileged groups and prevalence of severe gender discrimination – are likely to shape Indian society in future. I am not presuming that such turbulences and the kind of social change driven by these – are not desirable. However the presumption of a consistently upward movement of the country towards a peaceful and prosperous one could be unrealistic.

Politicians of all kind need to understand these crucial challenges and the difficult trajectory that the country may traverse in future. Their promises to fix all problems of the country through magical solutions – or due to their extra-ordinary individual capabilities – are less likely to be realizable. This can shorten political cycles, because people may get disheartened quickly. Or they may go behind not-so-democratic remedies in politics and social mobilizations.

One can see a failure in this regard in the whole spectrum of politics. Indian National Congress was too liberal, either in its pro-socialist form before 1980s or pro-business avatar afterwards. It did not enable the structural transformation of Indian society and economy by providing schooling for all or enabling the transfer of the majority to non-agricultural sectors. BJP’s combination of conservatism (and traditionalism) and economic growth is highly problematic. This is so since some of the crucial barriers against India’s economic and social development are rooted in its culture and society. The failure of left-of-center forces in mobilizing different sections of society in the country as a whole is obvious. Moreover their rhetorical opposition to economic development is, in reality, strengthening those pre-modern forces in Indian society, leading to the perpetuation of illiberal and vulnerable living conditions of the under-class, lower-caste and women.

There has been an intellectual tradition in India which is somewhat indifferent to the living reality of its majority. To some extent, this intellectual tradition continues in academic discourses. Taking small practical steps to improve the life of people at large is not an important priority for the educated section of Indian society. On the other hand, they are deeply interested in reproducing themselves. They are trained historically to capture resources and discourses in their favor. In that sense, Indian intellectuals are least prepared to articulate the fundamental challenges that are encountered by the country. Instead, they argue for the preservation of the status quo in many insidious ways and these could be couched in anti-capitalism, anti-development, anti-modernization, post-modernism, cultural-relativism, and so on.

The relatively better living conditions of the middle-class (a product of their longer-period exposure to education and enabling economic conditions), and the social distance between them and others, make the former indifferent to the serious challenges that we have discussed here. Hence they could live in an imaginary world of an emerging and powerful India which is rooted in its culture and tradition by glossing over its deep contradictions. They are likely to be shocked by (and least prepared to face) the turbulence that the country may encounter in near future.